In this new and rapidly changing world there are four effects of memetic evolution that we know will happen. They are already locked in. Technology will become ever more effective, the population in the Northern Hemisphere will become more aged, the environment will deteriorate, and society will become more divided.
Technology is bringing with it enormous new social pressures. Our culture has evolved to communicate face to face and later in print. It seems the internet and the mobile phone has released a whole new wave of human nastiness in the form of bullying, trolling, crime and pornography. We still don’t know the long-term effect of this on our young. Technology is also bringing job insecurity; it has enabled the gig economy and the increasing use of robotics and artificial intelligence will further change the work environment. It is also subverting the democratic process by transmitting fake news, rumour and terrorism. And it is altering the nature of war between countries, China Russia and North Korea have already used it to disrupt the economies of the west, drones and armed robots have the potential to disrupt it further.
As regards population, whereas just 5-10 % of the British were over 65 in the 1950s, 25- 30% will be over 65 in the 21st century. This is a four-fold increase. It means that the age of retirement will have to rise further and the implications for health and social costs are enormous. For instance, The Health Foundation has recently estimated that, to keep up with growing demand, NHS and social care services in England will need more than 1.1 million extra staff over the next decade.
Thirdly, we are already seeing the effects of climate change, environmental degradation and a huge loss of biodiversity as we convert nature to arable land and pollute the environment. We have changed the very nature of the planet to suit our needs, so much so that Geologists have deemed that we have entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene. Epochs usually last millions of years. If the climate scientists are right the Anthropocene will herald an era where environmental degradation will increasingly impinge on all our lives. We will see more floods, droughts, high temperatures and storms and experience more acutely the resulting economic disruption.
Finally, we are creating a divided society with a new underclass and a new super-rich aristocracy. The loss of manufacturing in the West has resulted in the demise of the old working class, organised by trade-unions. It is being replaced by a highly stressed labour force on zero hours contracts, self-employed in the gig economy. At present this new class is not organised or self-aware. This is bound to change and new class conflicts will emerge.
None of this is new. We all know this is happening and yet what are we doing about it. We and our politicians remain resolutely short sided. Most of us are too concerned with day-to-day existence to look into the future and make cogent plans for confronting the coming problems. We see daily how we are always reacting to events with surprise, rather than anticipating issues. The NHS totters on the edge of collapse, but the government still has no long-term plan on how to cope with the health care costs of an aging population. We were totally unprepared for the Covid pandemic despite warnings from the scientific community. Immigration controls are a total mess, as seen by the recent Windrush scandal and Brexit labour shortages. Micro-plastics are polluting the oceans and the government is talking about banning cotton buds. Despite all the promises about tackling climate change, the level of greenhouse gases continues to rise at a alarming rate. Google and Apple continue to avoid paying taxes and nothing, so far, has been done about it. Amazon is becoming a global monopoly and no one seems concerned. The recent leak of the Pandora papers showed that corrupt politicians, crooks and businessmen continue to use shell companies to hide their wealth in tax-havens and buy power and influence by contributing to political parties.
Our democratically elected leaders are failing us. They remain resolutely focused on short term issues with opinions set by past experience. Conservative politicians cling to the failed policies of neo-liberalism and try to imitate Margaret Thatcher. The left is deeply divided between hard core socialists with policies from the 1950s and those that are afraid to speak out for the working class and seem to have no positive ideas of their own. Memetic evolution is changing the world faster than ever. No party appears capable of looking forward or effectively communicating the nature of the challenge or the speed of change.
We need a new politics for a new era. One that looks forward rather than back. One that is capable of anticipating change and setting appropriate policies to mitigate its effects. One that is not appealing constantly to past glories but can galvanise the nation to address the coming problems. The lives of our children and grandchildren are dependent on us making the right decisions now.
